On 31 October 2014, the United Nations Secretary General appointed a High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations, with the aim to undertake a ¡®comprehensive assessment of the state of United Nations peace operations today and the emerging needs of the future,¡¯ especially with regard to the changing nature of conflict. With this paper, the ²ÝÁñÊÓƵ Centre for Policy Research wishes to nurture this debate and provide insight into major recent trends in violent conflict. This paper finds that:
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After declining for much of the 1990s, major civil wars have almost tripled in recent years along with the number of battle deaths.
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UN peace operations are increasingly deployed to situations where there is no peace to keep: roughly two-thirds of peacekeepers and almost 90 percent of SPM personnel are working in peace operations covering countries experiencing high-intensity conflict.
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With a decline in civil wars ending in military victory, the conflict relapse rate has increased.
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The conflict resolution cases on the UN¡¯s agenda are becoming more difficult, increasing the average life-span of UN peace operations.
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Conflicts are becoming more intractable and less conducive to traditional political settlements due to three main developments:
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Organized crime has emerged as a major stress factor that exacerbates state fragility, undermines state legitimacy, especially in post-conflict settings, and often lowers the incentives of armed groups to enter political settlements;
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The internationalization of civil wars, which tends to make them deadlier and longer;
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The growing presence of violent extremist Islamist groups in UN mission areas, which complicates peacemaking and fosters a ¡°hunker down and bunker up¡± mentality among UN peace operations.
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Some forms of violence against civilian populations in wartime are increasing, posing challenges to the implementation of protection of civilians mandates. Among the key trends we see is that: a larger share of today¡¯s mass atrocities takes place in the context of civil wars; rebel groups have become increasingly responsible for the majority of civilian deaths; and the number of displaced people due to violence is at an all-time high.
Access Major Recent Trends in Violent Conflict .
